This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Joe Biden (631) Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. 2023 BBC. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. 8. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. 2016 Election (1135) Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Demographics (84) That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Go on, look them up! It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. (i.e. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. "They followed through the whole four years. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. All Rights Reserved. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Free and open-source. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Outstanding. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. These are the bellwether counties. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Click here, for more. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election i.e. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. our Gitlab account where you can Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. These counties could play an . "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. 12. Until this year. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Bellwether - Wikipedia Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? The matters that way on their minds are real. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Still, the state's worth watching. Hillary Clinton (578) In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Really stop reading. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. The divisions were everywhere. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Subscribe to breaking updates Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. 2. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Seriously. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Bellwether 2016 Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . This county voted with the popular vote each time. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. 5. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Nobody forgot about politics.". Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It's the wrong question. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Their concerns are real. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. All rights reserved. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Election night is going to be information overload. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. . Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. The divisions were everywhere. Jeff. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Ron Elving . What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? ET. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. University of Denver, 2. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009.
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